National effective rents increased 0.54% from June to July, bringing year-to-date effective rent growth up to 4.42%, according to new data from Dallas-based Axiometrics Inc.
Annualized, the effective rent growth rate has moderated from the peak rate of 5.32% set in July 2011, reaching a point of relative stability around 4% for every month since November 2011.Â
Axiometrics reports that while new apartment deliveries have yet to impact rent growth, the rate of new deliveries is accelerating with approximately 56,000 units being delivered in the last six months of 2012 and approximately 129,000 units going online in 2013. Axiometrics is forecasting full-year effective rent growth of 4.1%.
The national apartment occupancy rate declined by three basis points from 94.36% in June to 94.33% in July, although it is up almost three-quarters of a point on a year-to-date measurement. Corpus Christi, Texas, was the most improved market in July, with annual rent growth climbing from 3.22% to 7.74%.
‘Since the tear the apartment market was on in July of 2011, there has been a gradual moderation in both effective rent and occupancy growth, though we are still near historical highs for both,’ says Ron Johnsey, president of Axiometrics. ‘Interestingly, new supply is also just now really starting to hit the market in a big way, so at this point, it can't be faulted for the moderation in rent growth, especially as some markets – like Houston, Southeast Florida, Nashville and Denver – are actually seeing growth rates higher than they were a year ago. The performance of the apartment market between now and next spring will provide a better idea of how the new deliveries are impacting existing product, as close to 89,000 new units will be delivered between now and April 2013.’